Show Renewals

Researchers Predict Ratings and Renewals with Nothing More Than Emotional Reactions Data

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While ratings continue to be the definitive metric by which a show gets picked up for a full season, social media has been a leading indicator in how TV networks prioritize data to make key programming and marketing decisions. With that in mind, Canvs partnered with MAGNA GLOBAL to test whether or not emotional data in response to programming can determine if a show will be renewed prior to its official network announcement.

As the industry standard in emotion measurement, Canvs is uniquely qualified to conduct this study. Our Canvs TV solution is proven to be 200% more accurate than traditional sentiment analysis at analyzing how Millennials feel. Canvs is unmatched in understanding the language of social conversations. Our knowledge base includes over five million idioms, slang expressions, acronyms, and misspellings not found in the dictionary, but commonly found in social.

 

Methodology

Canvs and MAGNA GLOBAL analyzed data from 20 TV shows in the Fall 2015 season (August 1, 2015–February 9, 2016) to determine how far out they could predict whether a show would be picked up for a full season or a new season.

The following Social TV data was provided by Canvs:

  • Volume: Tweet volume across shows analyzed

  • Emotional Reaction Rates: Canvs’s proprietary measurement of an audience’s Emotional Reactions to an airing or season

  • Proprietary Scores:

    • Love

    • Excited

    • Crazy

    • Funny

Key Findings

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Canvs injected its data into MAGNA GLOBAL’s predictability study to determine if that data improved the results. The results were affirmative: Canvs’ Emotional Reaction data improved predictability from 58% to 83% against 2014-2015 Fall Season Programming.

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On average, Canvs predicted renewal of shows three weeks prior to official network announcements.

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The most powerful prediction in the study was 87 days ahead of the show’s renewal announcement, for FOX’s Scream Queens.

 
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CBS’s Supergirl was predicted to be renewed 35 days prior to the network’s announcement.

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NBC’s Blindspot was predicted to be renewed 14 days prior to the network’s announcement.

 


Learn How Emotional Reactions Predict Show Renewals